Early warning systems and end-user decision-making: A risk formalism tool to aid communication and understanding

Abstract

In this work, we introduce a formalism to highlight the role of decision-making implicit in the setup of early warning systems (EWSs) and its consequences with respect to loss avoidance for end users. The formalism, a close relative of the cost/loss approach, combines EWS verification scores with traditional expressions of risk from the point of view of the user. This formalism articulates in mathematical format many well-known issues surrounding EWS usage, offering a conceptual anchor for concepts that otherwise may seem to wobble among the multidisciplinary perspectives participating in the EWS chain.